Data provided by Dealogic
The bar graphs below illustrate the trend in the growth and trends in issuance in the euro-denominated corporate bond market.
i) Senior Financials Issuance Since 2003
The all singing, all dancing days of senior issuance pre-financial crisis – are over. Admittedly, back then a fair portion of the supply was front-end in terms of maturity and league table motivated, but we have seen a material decline in senior issuance levels. The banking sector, quite simply, doesn’t need the money.
The difficult macro outlook had made banks more wary of lending but conditions and the outlook are less strained now. Nevertheless, we think we will only see issuance at around the average level established over the past few years, while senior non-proffered deals – as TLAC considerations become firmly entrenched – will be main senior funding structure now on.
MiFID II is HERE
ii) Senior Financials Monthly Supply
July’s €9.6bn of senior bank deals represented a slowdown from the June offerings (€12.6bn) but we prefer to look at the year as a whole. The total deal flow to the end of July came in at €107bn and is just €23bn shy of 2018’s full-year total.
August has already seen BofA kick off with a transaction in the opening session and the omens remain good for a full-year somewhere in the region of €170bn.