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Premium Content Archives - Credit Market Analysis

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Premium Content

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13th February 2019

To Fall or Not to Fall on the Non Call | Bank Capital Insights

Head Scratcher or Mis-priced Hope? Banco Santander (SANTAN) in the end decided not to call their EUR 6.25 Perp 19 AT1 for economic reasons.  This is the first AT1 not to be called and, to some extent, this has come as a surprise to most investors.  However, purely from an issuer perspective, it makes complete […]
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10th February 2019

It was just too good a thing

Squeaky bum time, again… Approaching the half way point for the month and we find that credit spreads have performed better than even the most bullish of expectations. OK, there are still almost 11 months to go and the macro risks are building, but we have some good performance in the bag to help alleviate […]
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7th February 2019

Grim reaper lurks

Limp credit markets… It’s been the limpest of weeks as far as activity has been concerned, although for credit market participants they’re at least grateful for the squeeze in spreads which has given some excellent early year performance. We’re not buying into the excuse that the earnings season has curtailed primary activity, because only a […]
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6th February 2019

Special place in Hell? Surely not

Credit on a roll… We are barely six weeks into 2019 and we have an almighty squeeze occurring in spreads in the corporate bond market. Investment grade spreads have tightened 20bp (iBoxx index) while the solid support for the underlying has meant that we have already managed total returns of 1.5%. The high yield market, […]
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6th February 2019

Ring (ING) in the profits | Bank Capital Insights

Beauty in its simplicity… ING reported Q4 and fully year 2018 earnings on Wednesday morning and investors seem to like the simplicity of the underlying business model and overall ease in understanding the drivers of its earnings.  Net income for 2018 came in at EUR 4.7 billion (despite the EUR 775 million of regulatory settlement […]
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5th February 2019

Squeeze me tight

Looking for signs of life in corporate primary… The opening sessions of the week have seen little corporate bond activity amid scant signs that we might experience a material pick-up as the week progresses. It would be nice if we are proved wrong. It just seems like we are going to get bogged down with […]
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4th February 2019

Perceptions can sometimes be wrong | Bank Capital Insights

Italian banks may be the focus but the French banks may need a re-assessment Without a doubt an Italian recession or political crisis will have significant impact on the Italian banks given the amount of government debt they hold and the ongoing reliance on ECB for funding.  And these issues are well documented and no […]
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3rd February 2019

Credit spreads squeeze, again

Recession risks loom amid a need for yield… Forgive the pun but, unfortunately, January is not a dry run for the rest of the year. We were hit with a raft of disappointing data on the opening session of February (non-farms payrolls aside), and the stage is set for it to continue – likely leaving […]
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31st January 2019

Big squeeze closes credit in January

Solid month but choppy waters ahead… Across all markets, January has been a good month in performance. Equities, commodities, rates and credit have all delivered surprisingly good returns. That’s not necessarily all good. It highlights a relief trade in equities after a damning 2018 where dovish policy keeps rates low and liquidity in plentiful supply. […]
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30th January 2019

When the doves fly

Holding on to gains… After a difficult final quarter of 2018, we have got just what we needed in January as we corrected some the ills which so blighted 2018’s performance. Brexit might have dominated Tuesday’s session and led to a blank session for markets, but Wednesday was all about gauging the repercussions of the win […]
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