Category Archives for "Polls"

16th October 2015

Investor positioning poll for Q4, 2015: Results

Our latest anonymous poll asked investors how they were positioned for Q4. Given the weakness in August and September in all risk markets, we are surprised to find that 41% were overweight portfolio beta with 29% neutral and 29% underweight. The poll was conducted in the first week oInvestor Poll Results Credit Market Dailyf October and into the current rally, so maybe that was an influence.

Investor cash positions are high, the primary market has delivered less than Eur6bn of non-financial IG corporate bond issuance (against a 5-year average of Eur15bn, Dealogic data) and secondary market liquidity is offering no assistance. Into that triumvirate, any lifts has seen spreads move disproportionately tighter.

Sentiment has been boosted by the ongoing weak macro because it means quite likely the Fed will not be raising rates later this month. Loose policy for longer keeps risk assets better bid. October has shown a good recovery (iBoxx IG index -9bp) and it seems that most expect the rally will continue through the rest of the month and quite possibly the quarter.

According to our poll results, investors are positioned for a rally.

 

7th October 2015

Investor positioning poll

Our latest anonymous poll is attempting to ascertain how bullish or bearish investors might be into this final quarter of the year. We are faced with many headwinds and may have reached a pivotal moment for this year. Preserve performance or chase it? How are you positioned?

This poll closes in:

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How are you positioned going into year end? (Anonymous Poll)

1st October 2015

Credit spreads forecast poll, September: Result

Market participants predicted the following result to the question:

The IG iBoxx Corporate Bond Index closed at B+138bp at the end of Aug 2015. Where will it will be closer to at the end of Sept? [Poll Closed 4th Sept]

Our first poll in the series asked our email subscribers and website readers whether credit spreads, as measured by the iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, would be closer to B+130bp or B+150bp by the end of September. The index closed August at B+138bp and after index constituent changes, opened September at B+140bp. The final polling result was a close call, with 54% of those who voted on the bullish side and plumping for 130bp while 46% of voters were more circumspect and suggested 150bp.

Huge supply in early September and some nerves around the Fed meeting saw spreads wider by a considerable amount to B+149bp into the middle of September, but China growth concerns escalated and the VW situation struck. We hurried past the 150bp mark and topped out at B+172bp, with weakness coming from autos and basic resources. The latter were impacted by those growth fears, with Glencore, Anglo American and ArcelorMittal particularly weaker. At B+170bp, where we end September, we are 59bp wider than where we started the year and 30bp wider on the month. It has been a very difficult month, clouded by those aforementioned events, and it looks as if we will end the year much wider versus where we started it (at B+111bp) given that the Fed, China and VW uncertainties are unlikely going to be resolved anytime soon.

For the record, the HYindex closed at B+551bp, around some 90bp wider in the month.

17th September 2015

September rate hike poll results

Market participants predicted the following result to the question:

The Fed decides on the US interest rate on Sept 17th. Which way will it go?

 

An overwhelmingly large number of our readers got it right. 70%+ of you voted the same way as Fed – no hike. So, will you now be bullish risk assets and position accordingly? The next meeting is in October, and I for one do not think too much will change between now and then. The corporate bond market still retains it’s lure; there’s little or no money leaving it.

There are some good opportunities to add risk given the recent weakness; time to go shopping.