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5th October 2020

🗞️ Noise, noise and more noise

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

56.6bp, -1.3bp

iTraxx X-Over

332.4bp, -7.1bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

-0.51%, +3bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+126.2bp, -1.6bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+465bp, -8bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

0.75%, +5bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

5860.28, (+1.29%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12645.75, (+0.82%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3465.39, (+0.34%)

Just trying to get through 2020…

The potential for a major market upset has faded as quickly as Trump’s remarkable recovery, his erratic behaviour notwithstanding. So he will be in place and running his show until the next inauguration, at least. For now, it’s back to the US election, the election debates (this week Pence/Harris), the pandemic, vaccine developments and Brexit. All of the aforementioned would normally have a non-trivial probability of derailing markets, but they likely will not. It’s a noisy picture, but we would think that markets are probably pricing in – with all that entails (stimulus/higher market rates) – a Biden presidency.

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5th October 2020

🔟 It’s October – This month has history!

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

57.9bp, -1.2bp

iTraxx X-Over

339.4bp, -3.3bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.54%, unchanged

iBoxx Corp IG

B+128bp, -1bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+473bp, unchanged

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

0.70%, +3bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

5860.28, (+1.29%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12645.75, (+0.82%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3465.39, (+0.34%)

All up in the air…

The coronavirus has taken in President Trump – and immediately it was risk-off. There could be repercussions for what is already probably the most contentious US election in history, although the early news on his condition is upbeat. Nevertheless, over the next couple of weeks, it is going to be mighty difficult to spin a positive market story. Second virus waves are sweeping across the globe although they’re proving to be less deadly than the first. Still, they are possibly enough to put paid to hopes for much of an economic recovery. Everything else – and there is much to reflect on, has taken a back seat.

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