Archive

Monthly Archives: October 2019

31st October 2019

Picking the last of the low hanging fruit

Chapter 11… The election season has kicked off in the UK, and in the US the Fed has cut rates for the third time this year with the jury out as to whether they will again in 2019. We still have slightly optimistic signals (limited truce?) coming from the US/China trade situation, with only the […]
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29th October 2019

Finally!

Clarifying Brexit moment looms… Investors will be hoping that this week trades out as well as it has started. The FOMC, US data deluge (earnings and key macro), Brexit/UK election and the US/China trade talks have thus far failed to dampen the mood. While that concoction of event-risk might be expected to have an impact […]
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27th October 2019

QE to preserve fixed income performance

The damned sticky plaster… It might appear fairly gloomy, but for fixed income we’re in decent shape to see a good run into year-end. The sell-off in rate markets in October has run its course. Meanwhile, Draghi has gone – leaving the Eurozone (as ever) on the brink of a deflationary spiral, struggling to generate […]
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24th October 2019

November Promises Much

Not bad. Not bad at all… There are still five session left in which to get business done before we close out a decent month for credit markets. Total returns in IG are very slightly negative, affected by the sell-off in the underlying this month, but spreads (iBoxx) are 10bp tighter so far. As if […]
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23rd October 2019

Focus back on macro

If only it were that simple… An extension will be granted and we’re most likely heading for a general election. However, let’s not consume ourselves through November with Brexit. Time to move on. November could be good for markets and, for the moment, credit markets have come to a standstill. Actually, most markets have. There […]
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21st October 2019

Never-ending Brexit drama

Give us a break… It might have been a positive start to the week, but the Brexit-parliament shenanigans continue to hang over the market like the proverbial sword of Damocles. Once again, Parliament was denied a vote on the Brexit deal agreed between the UK and the EU. Nevertheless, even sterling assets held their ground, […]
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20th October 2019

Brexit’s final hurdle, Credit records to be broken

Magic Monday beckons… Pffft. And so it goes on. STILL no definitive Brexit decision! A spoiler amendment to the legislation was passed, the meaningful vote pulled and the letters duly went off to the EU (not) requesting an extension. However, legislation proceeds this week to get us over the line by Halloween.. and we have […]
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17th October 2019

Super Saturday up next

And we don’t mean the rugby… Thursday’s session really was all about Brexit. Getting the agreed UK/EU deal over the line is what matters now. It looks like it is ‘this deal, or no deal’, after Juncker ruled out granting a further extension after October 31 – which is a big help for the UK […]
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16th October 2019

Return to sender

Write a letter to the EU?… Eurozone inflation dropped to 3-year lows in September, highlighting the predicament that the ECB has in trying to boost a slumping economy. CPI (at 0.8%) and core CPI (at 1.0%) both year on year, are far away from the ECB’s medium-term target levels. Brexit negotiations remained on a knife-edge […]
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15th October 2019

Just the tonic

Brexit becoming a reality… Markets were not threatening to do too much amid ongoing apprehension around Brexit, the Middle East and the trade talks – until the afternoon session, and the US opening. And then we had a strong rally in risk assets, led (as usual) by equities and with a decent sell-off in safe […]
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