Archive

Monthly Archives: March 2019

31st March 2019

(Free content) Investors thankful for Q1 riches

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

65.1bp, -3.5bp

iTraxx X-Over

268.9bp, -11.7bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

-0.07%, unchanged

iBoxx Corp IG

B+139.7bp, -1bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+439.3bp, -5bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

2.41%, +2bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

7409.13, (-0.58%)
🇩🇪 DAX

13744.21, (-0.01%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3380.16, (+0.18%)

Not for long though, methinks…

Few would disagree that it has been an excellent quarter for the fixed income markets, and all being told, an excellent one for equity markets, too. The rising risk of recession – in some quarters they’re thinking depression, as the central banks’ arsenal of firepower draws something akin to the proverbial blank when it will be called into action – is going to change the landscape for asset markets later this year. That impotency is going to make the next downturn much worse than the last. Just as well we have bagged some solid performance because some markets will start to give some of that back through the next nine months. The Dax is still up 9%, a Brexit-maligned FTSE up 8.3% and the S&P some 13% (!), while euro-denominated IG credit investors bask on returns exceeding 3% and high yield portfolios are bolstered with 5%+ gains, all for Q1 2019. But something’s not quite right when rate markets return 2.6% (Eurozone) in the same period.

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27th March 2019

Recession fears boost corporate debt

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

68.5bp, +0.9bp

iTraxx X-Over

278.1bp, +2.1bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

-0.08%, -7bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+141.1bp, +0.4bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+447.2bp, +4.5bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

2.38%, -3bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

7409.13, (-0.58%)
🇩🇪 DAX

13744.21, (-0.01%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3380.16, (+0.18%)

Q2 beckons, time to hang on…

We’re almost over the finishing line for the first quarter of 2019 and, despite some wobbles of late borne from the fear of global recession, fixed income investors will be feeling replete. These next few days will be light in terms of activity with few doing anything but hoping little changes into the weekend. All the rage as we head into Q2 will be about central bank firepower and the effectiveness of it, and which will surely come into action once it is confirmed that we are in recession.

The arsenal of the ECB, Fed and so on might not be firing blanks whence it is unleashed – as surely it will be, and it is unlikely going to elicit the same macro-supportive response it did previously. Even back then, growth struggled reach any meaningful heights while inflation has barely touched target levels. With that in mind, we can expect more money to flow into fixed income assets as investors look once again to preserve capital (with a little bit of a coupon with it).

In our simple world, higher yielding corporate bond risk CAN BE the answer to negative yields.

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25th March 2019

Let’s hang on to what we’ve got

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

69bp, -1bp

iTraxx X-Over

281.8bp, -1.8bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

-0.02%, unchanged

iBoxx Corp IG

B+141.5bp, +1.5bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+446.6bp, +3.5bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

2.40%, -5bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

7409.13, (-0.58%)
🇩🇪 DAX

13744.21, (-0.01%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3380.16, (+0.18%)

Why worry…

We’re going to close the quarter with fixed income market performance firmly in the black and ahead of anyone’s expectations. Eurozone rate market returns (iBoxx) are up a massive 2.2% so far and they’re going to hang on to those levels once we close out the quarter, come the end of the week. Fear, loathing, Brexit, recession and geopolitics are all neatly lined up to make sure that it will be the case.

We’re not sure about equities because daily swings of 1-3% are not uncommon when the news flow becomes more strained. In credit, primary will possibly take a breather but it’s been an excellent 3 months for it, so we have time to absorb the €80bn of IG non-financial deal flow. Secondary might possibly give up some ground, but we’re not going to worry too much. After all, for the year to date, euro-denominated IG credit has bagged total returns at an incredible 3% and the HY market some 4.8%.

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24th March 2019

(Free Content) HY Trade Idea: LOXAM

IssuerCpnMaturityCCYS&PDeal SizeLatest PxYTWZ-Spread
LOXAM SAS4.87523/07/2021EURBB-239,300,000€ 101.500-15.304-2893
LOXAM SAS3.50015/04/2022EURBB-300,000,000€ 102.098-1.464-707
LOXAM SAS3.50003/05/2023EURBB-250,000,000€ 102.1230.369-261
LOXAM SAS4.25015/04/2024EURBB-300,000,000€ 104.7181.755156
LOXAM SAS6.00015/04/2025EURB250,000,000€ 105.1253.956376
LOXAM SAS7.00023/07/2022EURB225,000,000€ 104.092-18.539-3488
LOXAM 5Y CDS06/20/2024EUR275

Business Description

Loxam boasts 350,000 machines. Image: Loxam.com

LOXAM (BB) is a large equipment rental group offering over 1,500 different types of equipment, with approx. 760 branches, largely in France (65%). Major equipment includes Earthmoving (31% of sales), Aerial Platforms (21%), Building (12%), Handling (11%) and Energy (10%).

Competition is fragmented, LOXAM holds a 3.8% European market share (21% in France). Management owns 88% of the company, 3i 8% and Pragma Capital 4%

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24th March 2019

(Free Content) HY Strategy Weekly

Overview

Certainly, for the first quarter of 2019, plenty of buy and sell-side investors have been wrong-footed by the constructive tone in the European High Yield market. Many had been positioned for spread widening at the beginning of the year but a combination of dovish central bank policy (Fed pausing and ECB TLTRO’s), stable macro data, US and China trade talks and the benign inflation expectations have been catalysts for spread tightening.

Furthermore, technicals such as supply – which is lagging significantly from this time in 2018 – and HY fund inflows which have surprised to the upside YTD, have also exacerbated the rally in HY.

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24th March 2019

On a wing and a prayer

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

70bp, +3.3bp

iTraxx X-Over

283.6bp, +16.9bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

-0.02%, -6bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+140bp, +1.4bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+443bp, +6bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

2.44%, -10bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

7409.13, (-0.58%)
🇩🇪 DAX

13744.21, (-0.01%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3380.16, (+0.18%)

The sense of crisis is back…

Not since 2016 has the 10-year Bund yield dropped below 0%. It took a poor set of Eurozone PMI data on Friday – later added to by weak data from the US – to help tip that yield over the edge as it was confirmed that the all-important and crucial German manufacturing industry is in recession – as others across the Eurozone are too. It was all very dramatic.

The last time that yields were here, duration was better bid in anticipation of the ECB’s QE programme (June 2016). The ECB is absent now and we’re heading, effectively unassisted, for that record low of -0.13%. Worse, we’re not sure how further policy accommodation is going to help in the long term – but we know that it is coming. After wasting the previous couple of years failing to restructure anything, we’re punch drunk on liquidity accommodation and we will need more just to stand still.

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24th March 2019

Bank Capital: Investing in the “EGG ME” Era | Free Content

You may not like it but EGG ME is here to stay

First it was the PBOC, then came the ECB and now the Fed.  Investors are now starting to pencil in the likely new era of “EGG ME” or Extraordinary Globally Guaranteed Monetary Easing in perpetuity.  And in this “EGG ME” background it is becoming difficult to get bullish on bank equity in any part of the developed world.

I would argue that in certain parts of the world, bank equity valuations are stretched (Canadians, Aussie and even some large cap US banks) and do not reflect economic realities.  In addition, non-bank players are disrupting the traditional lenders and eating away the already shrinking revenue pie.  In Europe, the problem is even more acute given that the banks have multiple fundamental problems including shrinking margins, high cost base and very poor growth prospects.

Investors getting used to GIMME

Fool me on growth, fool me on inflation but GIMME (Guaranteed Indefinite Maximum Monetary Easing) QE forever seems to the only way to keep risk assets from completely falling over.    Given that decent global growth levels are getting increasingly difficult to achieve and inflation not reaching targets in any sustained manner, central bank after central bank are outplaying one another on who is going to be more dovish.  And the minute there is a semblance of monetary policy normalisation, investors are throwing a big tantrum and running for the hills.

This backdrop means that monetary accommodation is likely to stay for extended periods of time or even indefinitely and that certainly seems to be the case in Europe.  In addition to the above issues facing the sector, investors are focussing on:

  • complexity of legal structure and intra-group lending
  • cross border exposure especially in high risk EM countries
  • level of potential impairment from holding periphery government bonds
  • operational / reputational risks especially relating to KYC/ML
  • reliance on cheap central bank funding

If you didn’t notice, European Bank Index (SX7E) was down almost 7.5% last week reflecting investors angst and despair about earnings momentum.  We can add to it the Brexit related uncertainty and the very poor PMI numbers in Germany and France.


What to do in bank capital investing?

From an equity investor perspective, at first sight, valuations across the sector seem cheap given the low Price/TNAV (trading at a large discount to tangible net asset value), attractive dividend yield and fairly priced on a price to forward-looking earnings estimates.  But all of the three valuation metrics could still be questioned – is TNAV accurate?  Are dividend payouts sustainable?  Are the forward estimates realistic?

Valuations may be cheap and attractive but markets see to be focused on the “unknowns’ and risk/issues outlined above and they are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. Clearly qualitative factors comfortably taking precedence over quantitative models.

With bank equity looking potentially expensive and likely to underperform, investors may be forced to look into high yielding assets such as AT1s and bank sub debt.  Whilst the carry on AT1s may be attractive (given where risk-free assets are trading) there are other issues to consider including risk premium, equity/rates volatility and most importantly secondary market liquidity.

The structural weakness of the European banks come to the fore when they are sliced and diced in a worst case scenario – very poor earnings profile, inadequate reserve coverage for impairments and core capital shortfall due to leverage.  In such scenarios (though a low probability event), at least for some banks, capital burn is significant and whilst equity investors will take most of the hit, the AT1 instruments may yet come into play in terms of potential write-downs or conversion into equity.

This I think would be due to the issuer reaching PONV (point of nonviability) and regulator stepping in well before actual triggers come into play.  This PONV is the biggest unknown qualitative factor (and one that is decided by the regulator) in AT1 valuation.  Thus, single name selection becomes even more important in AT1 investing.


Devil is in the details – keep on buying does not work

One thing is for sure – this asset class needs specialist / expert handling – someone who understands the macro picture in addition to having a deep knowledge of the issuer and the sector and can handle the volatility that comes from the underlying cross-asset structural features.

Having said that there are a number of issues that look attractive to own for long- term investors. Next comes the question of liquidity, as to who would be the marginal buyer of these AT1s in size and what is the clearing level for that.  I believe that AT1s yielding 7% (and above) on a yield to call basis and 6% on a yield to perpetuity basis should find some decent interest.   A number of AT1s issued by large cap high quality European banks screen well on this metric including the likes of Lloyds, HSBC, UBS, ING, Nordea.

And when it gets there, I believe specialist bank capital funds, distressed debt investors and private equity firms will want to own this but as a price taker.  The asset class needs a certain type of deep pocket investor with locked in capital and one who is prepared to do the necessary deep dive work both at an issuer level and at an issue level.  And be able to slice and dice the balance sheet to estimate asset recovery values and its impact on capital structure.


Bank LT2, NPS and TLAC paper look attractive – significant cushion given buffers

Sub debt is always going to trade on the back of equity performance and investor perception and hence unlikely to materially tighten in spread terms but may outperform equity/AT1.   In particular, the sub debt issues from the large banks in Italy and Spain are attractive to own.

Also, it appears to me that Non-preferred senior bonds issued by the larger banks and TLAC paper issued by global banks are starting to become attractive as defensive plays to fund shorts in other parts of the capital structure and/or across names.


Conclusion

In conclusion, there are some interesting relative value opportunities in the bank capital space and investing in it is becoming much more interesting from a relative value perspective. To some extent this strategy takes out the directional risk element.  Careful single name selection and then determining which part of the capital structure to invest is clearly becoming more crucial.

Some examples include being long AT1s issued by Uncredito and short that bank’s equity. Or taking on a long NPS issued by ING Bank versus shorting ING Bank AT1s. We like being long ACAFP AT1 versus the bank’s LT2. And we would like being long UK and Nordic bank AT1s against SX7E put options. In all cases, the exact choice of issue and the trade notional ratios need to be carefully selected. For more insight and recommendations, drop us a line.

21st March 2019

The Fed is your friend

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

66.7bp, +0.9bp

iTraxx X-Over

266.7bp, +3.7bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.04%, -4bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+138.6bp, +0.8bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+437bp, +6bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

2.52%, -2bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

7409.13, (-0.58%)
🇩🇪 DAX

13744.21, (-0.01%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3380.16, (+0.18%)

Managing the decline in macro…

The Fed delivered a welcome dovish turn-up for the books and has likely provided the markets enough of an injection of a prolonged level of liquidity assistance that it will carry lumbering global economy through 2019. The good old peak to trough in the level of the economic cycle (be it measured by rates, inflation, growth) has compressed, courtesy of the devastating 2008 financial crisis and the policy response to it.

Only just out of the last downturn, and we’re into the next. Inflation has hardly sniffed at central bank policy targets while growth levels haven’t even reached half the post-war cycle peak before heading lower. And rates, well they’ve been stuck at the lowest of levels barely reacting to anything positive in macro, unconvinced that we’ve been anywhere near sustainable recovery.

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21st March 2019

(Free Content) HY Trade Idea: TCGLN

IssuerCpnMaturityCCYS&PDeal SizeLatest PxYTWZ-Spread
Thomas Cook Group PLC6.25015/06/2022EURB750,000,000€ 79.00014.5511434
Thomas Cook Finance 23.87515/07/2023EURB400,000,000€ 67.50014.1121382
Thomas Cook 5Y CDS12/20/2023EUR1350

Business Description

Thomas Cook (TCGLN) is a leading UK-based travel operator focusing on the European market, is the second largest tour operator in Europe.  It’s an integrated business, selling charter holiday packages with flights, transfers and hotels bundled together. The business operates approximately 100 aircraft and 3,100 shops.
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20th March 2019

The Fed signs off on 2019!

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

65.8bp

iTraxx X-Over

263bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.08%, -1bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+137.9bp, +0.5bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+431bp, +2.8bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

2.59%, -2bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

7409.13, (-0.58%)
🇩🇪 DAX

13744.21, (-0.01%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3380.16, (+0.18%)

Thank you, America…

The Fed took centre stage and suggested that they will be on hold for the whole of 2019 which elicited a euphoric market response amid much relief. In euro credit, €27bn in each of January and February and we have followed up with €22bn so far in March, with little sign of any real let up in the pace of supply from IG-rated non-financial markets.

The demand for the deals is as impressive as it is consistent as well as being the best it has been in recent memory. That includes when the ECB was busy vacuuming up the market in its own corporate QE purchase period. The most recent offering from Schaeffler AG saw demand up in excess of €18bn for the 3-tranche €2.2bn of deals, and pricing was rammed tighter between the initial price talk and the final level by 35bp – 45bp.

The focus of the demand hasn’t just been here, because we’ve had a plethora of regulatory capital offerings while the senior non-preferred sector is beginning to perk up some too. Secondary risk is in good shape, albeit amidst little activity but broad market confidence is holding the market together.

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