Archive

Monthly Archives: November 2018

29th November 2018

Fed the fish, now what?

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

79.7bp, -0.7bp

iTraxx X-Over

343.9bp, +1.9bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.32%, -3bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+165bp, +1.3bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+494.5bp, +4bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

3.02%, -2bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

6026.94, (-1.27%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12591.68, (-0.54%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3349.16, (+0.22%)

Because it won’t be enough…

The steady trickle of deals this week has been much welcomed (we think), especially as borrowers are paying up to get them done. Anything from 20-40bp versus the secondary curve is what it takes and we are getting a serious amount of repricing of secondary curves as a result. VW started with their cheap 4-tranche €4.25bn issue in early November, but we had €7.5bn from Takeda to absorb as well – plus a whole host of market volatility and apprehension to boot.

Of course, to get a deal away in this most difficult of year-end periods for the market means paying up. Remember, that event risk still lurks – Brexit, Trump, trade wars, Ukraine, Italy and oil.

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27th November 2018

She’s on the road… to nowhere

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

79.7bp, +1.9bp

iTraxx X-Over

339.4bp, +10.5bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.35%, -1bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+161.2bp, +3bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+487.8bp, +7.5bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

3.05%, -2bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

6026.94, (-1.27%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12591.68, (-0.54%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3349.16, (+0.22%)

It’s all in vain…

One step forward, two back, and few are convinced that we are anything likely going to sustain a rally between now and year-end. They’re right to feel/trade that way.

The Brexit debate continues but was less dominant in the session, although issues around it will resurface towards the end of next week in a big way – ahead of that crucial Commons vote on December 11. The other bit of good news was the emerging view that the Italians were rowing back on their effusive budget plans for 2019 and hence that ‘intolerable’ deficit as seen by the EC. Trump later stirred, though, on China tariffs and that dominated the mood as a little pressure was applied to US equities.

In the end, there wasn’t a whole load of enthusiasm around, and the markets were not flying. Nevertheless, amid that feeling of reduced immediate event-risk, primary credit was in better shape, giving borrowers an opportunity to get something on the screens as deals finally flowed.

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27th November 2018

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27th November 2018

🏦 BNP – Credit is not where equity is? | Bank Capital

BNP – Should credit investors look at equity?

For all the attention on DB & its inability to generate decent ROE and the consequent equity underperformance this year, BNP is another large cap national champion bank that seems to have lost its way with its equity which is down almost 35% YTD.  Looking through the reported Q3 figures, although not that obvious at first glance, equity investors seem to have focussed on some disturbing underlying trends.


Fundamentals are….

To start with, the bank, like its peers, is struggling to generate decent revenue growth in its corporate and investment bank, especially in its FICC business.   On top of that, the bank’s cost-to-income ratio is in the 70% area.   Loan losses have come down but that is due to benign economic conditions in Europe. Yes, it reports an acceptable 9% to 10% ROE for now but earnings are now exposed to multiple headwinds.

BNP: Wholesale funding reliance?

Asset quality and risk management used to be strong points – but with a reasonably large stock of NPLs and presence in Italy, Turkey and other Emerging Markets as well as exposure in personal financial services, future credit-related costs may yet go up. And additional provisioning may yet be needed at a time of decreased revenues and a stagnant cost base.

Overall funding metrics seem fine with a loan-to-deposit ratio around 94% and a highly diversified funding base. But that cannot mask the bank’s reliance on wholesale funding (?) given its large balance sheet size. As a large and frequent issuer of debt securities, the bank has very good access to capital markets and is able to issue debt at satisfactory spread levels.

Capital is where I find that the bank has really not kept pace with global peers. Yes, CET1 ratio is a decent 11.7% and leverage ratio at 4% (and it was at 4.6% at end of 2017) but in the event of a large tail risk event, these ratios drop sharply. In the recently concluded EBA stress test, the bank’s CET1 ratio dropped to 8.64% in a hypothetical adverse scenario.  The bank seems to have levered up its balance sheet in recent periods, especially in the investment bank.


Is credit leading or just ignoring for now?

Given the leverage situation and potential for headline risks stemming from a presence in Italy and Mediterranean countries, in my personal view, the bank’s AT1 securities and LT2 debt seem to trade tight. I think that this is a function of the bank’s French domicile and perceived strong risk management strengths.

Relative to equity, I wonder if AT1 holders have more confidence in the bank’s overall business strategy, past track record and current fundamentals despite the recent underlying trends and issues.

Only time will tell if this comfort factor of credit investors is justified.

26th November 2018

It’s all a little fishy

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

78.4bp, -2.2bp

iTraxx X-Over

328.9bp, -4.8bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.36%, +2bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+161.4bp, -1.1bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+480.4bp, -3bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

3.07%, +2bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

6026.94, (-1.27%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12591.68, (-0.54%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3349.16, (+0.22%)

Tell it to the judge…

‘One large cod (British) & frites, s’il vous plait’

So that’s it, then. The softest Brexit is happening on terms dictated wholly by the EU. The EU signed off on the deal at the weekend with suggestions that more freebies are coming their way courtesy of the UK government rolling over some more and having its stomach tickled. And in a sign of flexing its muscle, the EC has seemingly managed to get the Italians to revise their budget deficit lower than the 2.4% currently envisaged.

The markets ‘loved’ it. We haven’t seen the session intra-day low 3.17% yield on the 10-year BTP for a few months. A 1%+ rise in European equities is also an unusual occurrence of late.

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25th November 2018

The wait goes on

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

80.6bp, +0.9bp

iTraxx X-Over

333.7bp, +4bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.34%, -3bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+162.5bp, unchanged 

iBoxx Corp HY

B+483.5bp, +4bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

3.05%, -1bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

6026.94, (-1.27%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12591.68, (-0.54%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3349.16, (+0.22%)

It’s now or never…

We’re through Thanksgiving & Black Friday, and into the final couple of weeks of where we might get some meaningful business done. It’s been a poor year in almost every aspect for risk markets and we don’t expect much of a recovery before we close it out. It likely will not look much better than it does at the moment.

There is just too much event risk in the air, meaning that any semblance of price recovery might be taken as a selling opportunity. We could see some decent primary activity judging by the number of mandates being dished out and postponed deals which might revisit should conditions improve and windows open. But we’ve probably seen the best of it.

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22nd November 2018

🏦 AT1 – Bye Bye or Buy? | Bank Capital

Rough and tough for AT1 investors

It has clearly been a tough 2018 for many asset classes and, within that, AT1 has not been spared. The asset class saw its first annual loss with most of the widely followed benchmark indices down 3% to 5%. The asset class has been hit by risk aversion, tail risk events and investor apathy.

However, it seems to me that within the credit world, AT1 has been hit hard more due to liquidity and momentum factors. It is becoming increasingly technical in terms of who holds it and driven by headline risk. Everything else in terms of valuation doesn’t seem to matter.  My observations on a handful of AT1s reflect that it trades in a very tight space and ignores any concept of fundamental valuation. More so on a relative valuation basis either to equity and/or LT2 or Non-Preferred Senior.

Looking at the performance of AT1s issued by the European banks over the last 6 months, it is clear that much of the larger “underperformance” in certain names has been driven by idiosyncratic stories/themes – ISPIM and UCGIM impacted by Italian politics, BBVA by Turkey exposure, Danske Bank due to on-going operational risk related issues and 2018 vintage issues due to re-pricing of call risk.

A full-blown CDO type balance sheet analysis on some of the banks in my universe indicate significant relative value opportunities in both directions (long equity vs short AT1 in some cases and long AT1 and short AT1 in others) but finding the right notional amounts to use and the underlying liquidity to actually put it to work is even more challenging. Fundamentals are important, for sure, but it seems that market technicals seem to matter equally.


The importance of single name selection

In nearly all of the above names, the underperformance of equity to AT1 has been even more dramatic. Two observations – RV across issuers and/or capital structure has been the only effective way to manage the portfolio risks and the importance of deep-dive analysis in selecting single name exposure within the AT1 asset class.

Now comes the more difficult part – which single name exposures to own?   Without going to specific names or issues at this stage, we could yet set up criteria to come up with a shortlist of names to own:

  • Business model that is easy to understand with good visibility on both earnings and asset quality fronts
  • Superior risk management framework as reflected in quality and consistency of earnings and credit underwriting over the economic cycle
  • Solid capitalisation both at an absolute level and relative basis, especially on the leverage metric
  • Low stock of NPLs and good reserve coverage, hence any big uptick in non-performing loans can still be absorbed by pre-provision income
  • Self-sufficient funding and very little reliance on wholesale sources especially central bank funding
  • ROE that is close (or even higher) to the issuer’s COE
  • AT1 yield is significantly higher than dividend yield and AT1 coupons not at risk under most severe stress scenarios.

There are a number of large cap European banks that would meet most of the above criteria (if not all the criteria). I don’t want to give away those names as yet as I am sure you will find the exercise much more interesting.


Is it time for…?

Bye Bye – I believe we may yet see more price weakness as more investors figure out that this asset class is not for them. And if equities keep going lower, purely from a sentiment perspective, AT1s will get dragged lower.  So maybe it is bye bye time for some tourist investors.

Buy – Having said that there are a number of issues that look attractive to own for long-term investors. Next comes the question of liquidity, as to who would be the marginal buyer of these AT1s in size and what is the clearing level for that. I believe that AT1s yielding 8% (and above) on a yield to call basis and 7% to 8% on a yield to perpetuity basis should find some decent interest.

And when it gets there, I believe specialist bank capital funds, distressed debt shops and private equity firms will want to own this – but as a price taker.

The asset class needs a certain type of deep pocket investor with locked in capital and one who is prepared to do the necessary deep-dive work both at an issuer level and at an issue level. And be able to slice and dice the balance sheet to estimate asset recovery values and its impact on capital structure. Finally, of course, have the ability to stomach the volatility as the markets price in one tail risk event to another.  And don’t forget a specialist who understands the instrument, the issuer and the macro tail risks.

21st November 2018

Feet up for Thanksgiving

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

77.7bp, -2.9bp

iTraxx X-Over

320.5bp, -10.8bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.38%, +2bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+163.6bp, -1.3bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+482.4bp, -9bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

3.07%, +2bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

6026.94, (-1.27%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12591.68, (-0.54%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3349.16, (+0.22%)

More of the same would be nice…

Wednesday’s recovery in markets will kid no one. With so little expected to happen on Thursday and Friday, this was about cleaning up for the week. It was obviously being viewed with some suspicion, as not even Stryker Corp dare test the water. The news flow was mixed, with the US back on the warpath as the US-China ceasefire of the past few weeks abruptly ended. Talk about WTO ‘eviction’ amid unreasonable behaviour is setting us up for a hit to global growth next year as tariffs come on line. And then there was Italy, sanctioned by the European Commission’s Excessive Deficit Procedure over it’s 2019 budget. The Italians were standing firm.

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20th November 2018

🌊 Wipe out

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

79.5bp, +1.1bp

iTraxx X-Over

331.3bp, +4.8bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.35%, -3bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+165bp, +5.5bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+492.3bp, +13bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

3.06%, unchanged

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

6026.94, (-1.27%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12591.68, (-0.54%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3349.16, (+0.22%)

There’s always someone else worse off…

As we head into the Thanksgiving/Black Friday break, the plight of the market gives us so much to write about. Credit returns in IG and HY currently at -1.6% and -3.3% year to date (iBoxx) are heading for their worst annual performance since 2008 (-4%, IG) and 2011 (-3%, HY), respectively. We have primary supply at relatively depressed levels of late, leaving the full year, in IG, currently at €210bn and will now fall well short of the average seen in the 2014-2017 period (€250bn per annum).

The high yield market, going great guns until September, has seen primary drop sharply – aka Devon Loch proportions, and a potential record year has vanished through a difficult and volatile final quarter. Across the board, event risk maligned corporates have been punished by credit investors, hard. But it’s worse elsewhere.

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19th November 2018

Everybody wants a bigger slice of the cake

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

79.5bp, +2.1bp

iTraxx X-Over

326.5bp, 10.5bp

🇩🇪 10 Yr Bund

0.38%, unchanged

iBoxx Corp IG

B+159.4bp, +3bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+400.6bp, +8bp

🇺🇸 10 Yr US T-Bond

3.05%, -2bp

🇬🇧 FTSE 100

6026.94, (-1.27%)
🇩🇪 DAX

12591.68, (-0.54%)
🇺🇸 S&P 500

3349.16, (+0.22%)

Future relationship to peril May…

The mapping out of the future relationship between the EU and the UK, with some sort of detail to be published on it on Tuesday, promises a lively week on the European political scene. There will be more pressure on Theresa May as she likely cedes ground and the full extent of the potential demands become known. Single name event risk emerged around Renault and this close to year-end means there will be a punishing market reaction. We got just that.

So, as we head into the Thanksgiving/Black Friday break, it looks like the markets (across the board) are not going to be particularly active – and most likely will be better offered for choice throughout. This is one divorce which is certain to lead to an acrimonious split. We have little choice but to stay sidelined, and wait and hope. Credit spreads are likely going to leak wider, but losses now of up to 2% in total return terms in IG (iBoxx cash index) are entirely possible as spread widening accelerates. We’re better off than equities, though.

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