Archive

Monthly Archives: May 2018

31st May 2018

Nerves of steel needed

June will make or break our summer… We closed out May with the markets at a real inflection point. Hopefully, we haven’t passed it (to the downside) as we ponder difficult situations on several fronts all coming at the same time. There is drama and much intrigue in Italy. Inflation in the Eurozone for May […]
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30th May 2018

Good riddance to May

Midweek respite – much needed… In case anyone missed it, a recap: Italy has no government, with a President trying to install a Prime Minister unlikely to succeed in cobbling an interim government together and all the while against an economy enduring a decade-plus long slump. Who can blame anyone for wanting to try something […]
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29th May 2018

Markets vs Politics vs… Democracy

It’s a process, don’t blame it on the Brexit… The establishment won’t give up without a fight. And the market is possibly beginning the long unwinding process – towards an Italian exit from the European Union, and readying itself for the subsequent chaos that will follow. The politics in Italy are now clearly evolving towards […]
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28th May 2018

Batten down the hatches – again!

Politics sink markets… It’s starting to look like a May to forget. Rate market investors have been fortunate enough to come out on top into the re-emergence of macro and geopolitical event risk, after what was a fairly brighter opening week. The supposed economic plan of a new governing coalition being cobbled together in Italy […]
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24th May 2018

Harum-Scarum

Hold on tight… What a week! Good riddance we would hope, but unfortunately, it looks like we’re just at the start of a more difficult period for the markets. The slowdown in the Eurozone’s economy is real and doesn’t show signs of turning around just yet. Equities have just got a little more choppy. The […]
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23rd May 2018

Bad hair day

Credit throws in the towel… The corporate bond market has just about everything going for it from both a fundamental credit perspective (low defaults, Goldilocks economy, low rates, spreads not at record tights, low levels of transformational M&A and so on) and a technical one. The latter has investors sitting on plenty of cash amid […]
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22nd May 2018

Pausing for breath

Respite session… Finally, some good news! First off, the Chinese announced a reduction in auto import tariffs to 15% from 25%, with some speculation that they will need/have to cut them further. We await news on other sectors/products having import tariffs reduced. And then we had some bottom fishing around Italian debt markets which was […]
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21st May 2018

Lessons learned in credit

Italy presents no catastrophe for credit… We’ve lost count, but the 68th (?) government since the second world war – Does it really matter?  We have been here, just in a different guise. Most would think that there are far more important things going on in the world – North Korea, Turkey, Argentina, Russia to name […]
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20th May 2018

Italy to the fore

They just got it wrong… Investors often have a gripe about syndicate desks tightening pricing too much and then dishing our poor allocations. The reality is, the method (game) of pricing and then building a materially oversubscribed book gives comfort to investors through knowing there is safety in the numbers. All the more reason to […]
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17th May 2018

Worry wall

Wall of worry rises… Market rates have shot higher – especially in the US – on the back of expectations of improving macro and tightening job markets feeling a necessary rise in inflation, and allowing the Fed to try and bring policy as close to normal as it can. We’re being dragged higher in the […]
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