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Daily Archives: 9th April 2018

9th April 2018

Risks intensify

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

57.9bp, -0.1bp

iTraxx X-Over

284.6bp, -1.5bp

10 Yr Bund

0.50%, unchanged

iBoxx Corp IG

B+106.8bp, -0.5bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+330.3bp, -3bp

10 Yr US T-Bond

2.80%, +3bp

FTSE 100

,
DAX

,
S&P 500

,

But tell that to US equity markets…

European markets opened in sprightly form, refusing to be dragged lower by the difficult close previously in the US. That didn’t quite last, even as US equities surged higher. The latest data from Germany is now beginning to be a concern on the macro front, but yet another atrocity in Syria is weighing on sentiment, too (or ought to be).

German exports for February declined sharply (-3.2% MoM, versus expectations of +0.2%) adding to a recent crop of poorer data from that country (and the Eurozone as a whole), suggesting we’ve had the best of it for this cycle.

Industrial production in the opening quarter has been weak and retail sales have been disappointing, too. So both the industrial and consumer sectors are off the Q4 2017 highs, and it is difficult to see how we might fashion a recovery given those increasing geopolitical and other risks in the system.

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