Archive

Monthly Archives: April 2018

30th April 2018

Chapter 5: Supply recovery needed

Holidays, arghh… That was a slow start to the week ahead of Tuesday’s May Day holiday which takes in many regions (UK next Monday), effectively cutting the week short to 3 days of business – for credit markets anyway. The FOMC decision is due Wednesday, but with no change expected it should not act to […]
Subscribers can log in to continue reading. Otherwise, purchase The Monthly Access Pass or One Year Subscription to become a subscriber.
29th April 2018

Don’t look back in anger

A cautious welcome… In this final session of April, we should be looking forward to what May might hold for the markets. But we find ourselves looking back instead, on an incredible Friday which might have repercussions in several different markets. We had the historic North/South Korean summit, a miss on French Q1 GDP, no […]
Subscribers can log in to continue reading. Otherwise, purchase The Monthly Access Pass or One Year Subscription to become a subscriber.
26th April 2018

April showers, May flowers

Euro credit reigns…. ECB Thursday always gives the markets a day off, even if we are well-prepared to expect little change in policy. The July meeting might matter a little more. And so we drifted through the session and it is likely that, being so close to month-end, Friday will trade out in similar fashion […]
Subscribers can log in to continue reading. Otherwise, purchase The Monthly Access Pass or One Year Subscription to become a subscriber.
25th April 2018

Slipping and a sliding

Time to believe… Just when we thought it was safe, we snatch defeat from a rally which was just beginning to see us recover losses seen in the opening three months of the year and take us back to flat and respectable. The earnings season has been a good one thus far with more hits […]
Subscribers can log in to continue reading. Otherwise, purchase The Monthly Access Pass or One Year Subscription to become a subscriber.
24th April 2018

Inflexion point for risk assets

Mixed fortunes… We hoped that this week might have sizzled, pouring with deals ahead of an anticipated quieter last couple of days into (and after) the ECB meeting/announcement and then that important macro data (US GDP and core PCE). But no. We’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for corporate bonds in secondary as well […]
Subscribers can log in to continue reading. Otherwise, purchase The Monthly Access Pass or One Year Subscription to become a subscriber.
23rd April 2018

Rising rates sap enthusiasm

Rate market sucks away the joy… We were back to our customary slow start to the week following a weekend of lighter news flow, allowing us to concentrate on the events ahead. That means a focus on the earnings season, the ECB and what’s occurring in the rate markets. It might have pedestrian, but a […]
Subscribers can log in to continue reading. Otherwise, purchase The Monthly Access Pass or One Year Subscription to become a subscriber.
22nd April 2018

Rate market limelight

Warnings signals abound… There was much good last week for the markets. The rally in equities through the first part of it, the broadly good start to the earnings season with financials leading, and the moderate recovery in credit spreads. There has been no obvious escalation in the Syrian/US troubles, while the potential for de-nuclearisation […]
Subscribers can log in to continue reading. Otherwise, purchase The Monthly Access Pass or One Year Subscription to become a subscriber.
19th April 2018

Corporate bonds – The Dead Zone

Zombie bond market… These are odd times for credit. The corporate bond market should be racing along. It isn’t. Admittedly, there are warnings signs aplenty on macro, rate markets and geopolitics, and while equities generally are holding steady after recovering from their recent wobble, there’s little follow-through into the credit markets. Corporate bond markets are […]
Subscribers can log in to continue reading. Otherwise, purchase The Monthly Access Pass or One Year Subscription to become a subscriber.
18th April 2018

IG borrowers missing in action

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

53.4bp, +0.8bp

iTraxx X-Over

271.1bp, +3.3bp

10 Yr Bund

0.53%, +2bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+103.2bp, +0.2bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+310bp, -1bp

10 Yr US T-Bond

2.86%, +4.5bp

FTSE 100

7,627.40, 23.55
DAX

12,695.16, 17.19
S&P 500

2,767.32, 4.73

Corporate vanishing act…

A poke in the eye for a moribund euro-denominated IG non-financial corporate bond market, as Syngenta decided not to proceed with the acquisition finance funding deal in the currency. They got filled in dollars for the $4.75bn they were looking to raise. The issuance run rate so far this year is the lowest for five years resulting in a sense of frustration in some quarters, not helped that the tipping of the supply/demand imbalance towards the latter isn’t exactly leaving spreads ratcheting tighter. Even the expected dual-tranche offering from EP Infrastructure didn’t materialise although we’re hopeful it will be Thursday’s business.

Continue reading

17th April 2018

It must be a relief rally

MARKET CLOSE:
iTraxx Main

52.6bp, -0.8bp

iTraxx X-Over

267.8bp, -3bp

10 Yr Bund

0.51%, -1bp

iBoxx Corp IG

B+103bp, -0.6bp

iBoxx Corp HY

B+312bp, -1.5bp

10 Yr US T-Bond

2.82%, -1bp

FTSE 100

7,627.40, 23.55
DAX

12,695.16, 17.19
S&P 500

2,767.32, 4.73

Because macro isn’t improving…

Uh oh… The signs are there, the Eurozone is slowing sharply and we might ultimately be heading into recession territory for the region. The ZEW index, a measure of economic confidence in the German economy fell to -8.2 in April and to the lowest level in over five years. Add into that the weak Q1 reports taking in industrial activity, exports and consumer growth, then the German economy – long seen as the engine for growth for the whole of Europe, is slowing sharply.

The ECB has a real job on its hands now.

Continue reading

1 2 3